|Brexit Impact on UK Economy and Business, Forecast to 2023|
|GDP Growth to Dip to Negative 0.4% by 2021 in No Deal Scenario; Growth to Weaken but Remain Positive in Other Probable Scenarios|
With Brexit day fast approaching, this study examines the implications of Brexit for the UK economy and UK businesses. Key topics covered include transition period impact, UK-EU post-Brexit relationship scenarios, scenario-based macroeconomic outlook, and scenario-based industry outlook for the automotive and financial services industries.
Brexit negotiations commenced back in June 2017, and thus far, Phase 1 negotiations and discussions on the transition period have been completed. However, implementation of the points agreed to during these discussions is contingent upon the finalization and ratification of a withdrawal agreement. Consequently, should a no deal scenario unfold, a transition period would not come into effect. Should an agreement be ratified, a transition period would come into effect from March 29, 2019 (Brexit day) to December 31, 2020, thereby giving businesses an additional 21 months to prepare for permanent post-Brexit UK-EU relations. The UK is expected to remain in the EU Single Market and Customs Union during the transition period.
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