Global economic activity in 2026 is set against a backdrop of moderating growth, persistent tariff pressures, and geopolitical volatility. While global GDP growth is forecast to ease from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026, supply chain realignment and sustained fiscal spending will create critical growth avenues in AI, defense, critical minerals, and renewables.

The unwinding of 2025’s front-loading and the lingering effects of tariffs will temper trade momentum. However, selective bilateral agreements and a potential USMCA renewal offer pockets of stabilization. Oil prices are forecast to remain subdued, potentially dipping below the $55 per barrel mark in Q1 2026, before recovering as supply-demand dynamics normalize.

Despite the trade headwinds, fiscal support, AI-driven investments, and structural reforms across emerging segments will cushion downside risks. These dynamics indicate that 2026 is likely to deliver a mild slowdown rather than a recession. Businesses that course in line with global trends, by leveraging technology, securing resources, and regionalizing operations, will be best positioned to embed resilience in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

• How can your team gain key analytics into global and regional economic scenarios through growth trajectory analysis and visioning scenarios?
• What impact will factors like oil prices, labor segments, and the global inflation & interest rate environment have on the future of businesses and policymakers?
• Which regional opportunities and risk mitigation strategies will influence future growth potential?