Overview

2025 onwards, the global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States (US). This Frost & Sullivan macroeconomic growth analysis lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for global, US, China, Mexico, and Euro Area economies.

In baseline, we expect the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets (EMs). Alternatively, in the conservative scenario, protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% of global GDP growth in 2028. At the country level, in 2028, the real GDP growth of the US could slow to 2.0% and a meager 0.5%, in baseline and conservative, respectively.

Trade and immigration regulations in the US might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is expected to face a contraction in 2025 within the baseline with a -0.4% growth rate and a -0.5% rate in a conservative case.

• What are the long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and key industries like automotive, semiconductors, and oil and gas?
• How can decision-makers and executives leverage this growth analysis to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars?

Quick links

Click here to download the sample of this analysis

Already a member? Click here to access the analysis

Frost Honorarium Program

Unlock a $1,000 Incentive with a Complimentary Growth Dialog

Engage with our industry experts for a discussion to explore new growth opportunities for your business.

As a token of appreciation, you will receive a $1,000 honorarium—redeemable towards any of our products or services.

Schedule Your Growth Dialog Today!